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V-Lab

MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

20.03%

increased by 1.63%

1 Week

20.25%

increased by 1.85%

1 Month

20.98%

increased by 2.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5266
7.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1387
44.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9815
429.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8815
13.66***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days