V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
20.03%
increased by 1.63%
1 Week
20.25%
increased by 1.85%
1 Month
20.98%
increased by 2.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5266 | 7.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1387 | 44.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9815 | 429.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8815 | 13.66*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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