V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.14%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Week
16.78%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Month
18.92%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0575 | 8.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.1675 | 9.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7936 | 61.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0484 | 1.54 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0575 | 8.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1675 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7936 | 61.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0484 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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