MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.04%
decreased by 1.58%
1 Week
17.63%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Month
19.62%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0584 | 33.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1700 | 39.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7907 | 241.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0488 | 6.12*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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