MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
35.11%
increased by 19.54%
1 Week
35.01%
increased by 19.44%
1 Month
34.68%
increased by 19.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0568 | 8.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1657 | 9.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7958 | 62.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.0485 | 1.56 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0568 | 8.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1657 | 9.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7958 | 62.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0485 | 1.56 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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