V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
24.24%
increased by 6.83%
1 Week
24.96%
increased by 7.55%
1 Month
25.85%
increased by 8.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 63% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 63% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.1517 | 10.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7015 | 34.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0963 | 4.28*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2338 | 3.11*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8743 | 19.36*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.901
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1517 | 10.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7015 | 34.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0963 | 4.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2338 | 3.11*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8743 | 19.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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