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MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

17.64%

decreased by 1.20%

1 Week

19.44%

increased by 0.60%

1 Month

21.58%

increased by 2.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 63% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 63% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.1514
10.19***
βGARCH0.7022
34.70***
γleverage0.0957
4.26***
λ₁tau intercept0.2340
3.11***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8737
19.34***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.902

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1514
10.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7022
34.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0957
4.26***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2340
3.11***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8737
19.34***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.902

Half-life:

7 days