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V-Lab

MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.53%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

20.94%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

23.36%

increased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 57% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1726
46.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6532
85.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0986
19.01***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0106
9.36***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0340
12.62***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9600
296.95***

Persistence:

0.875

Half-life:

5 days