V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.53%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
20.94%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
23.36%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 57% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1726 | 46.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6532 | 85.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0986 | 19.01*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0106 | 9.36*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0340 | 12.62*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9600 | 296.95*** |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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