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V-Lab

MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

24.24%

increased by 6.83%

1 Week

24.96%

increased by 7.55%

1 Month

25.85%

increased by 8.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 63% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 63% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.1517
10.19***
βGARCH0.7015
34.60***
γleverage0.0963
4.28***
λ₁tau intercept0.2338
3.11***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8743
19.36***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.901

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1517
10.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7015
34.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0963
4.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2338
3.11***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8743
19.36***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days