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MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

14.27%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

15.02%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

17.52%

increased by 2.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 27% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 27% more than positive returnsδ = 1.75 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0550
7.85***
αARCH0.1937
13.79***
βGARCH0.8030
56.47***
γleverage0.0692
2.73***
δpower1.7479
9.59***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0550
7.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1937
13.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8030
56.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0692
2.73***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7479
9.59***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days