V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
14.27%
1 Week
15.02%
1 Month
17.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 27% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0550 | 7.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.1937 | 13.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8030 | 56.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.0692 | 2.73*** |
| δpower | 1.7479 | 9.59*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0550 | 7.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1937 | 13.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8030 | 56.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0692 | 2.73*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7479 | 9.59*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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