V-Lab
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.20%
increased by 1.93%
1 Week
16.07%
increased by 1.80%
1 Month
15.76%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8466 | 57.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.1796 | 12.20*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0052 | 2.43** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0170 | 1.68* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9785 | 84.27*** |
0.936
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8466 | 57.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1796 | 12.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0052 | 2.43** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0170 | 1.68* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9785 | 84.27*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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