Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.52%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
14.85%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
15.78%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8452 | 266.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1807 | 34.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0053 | 4.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0175 | 2.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9779 | 125.32*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices