V-Lab
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.44%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
12.15%
increased by 0.62%
1 Month
13.78%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8458 | 268.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1804 | 34.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0052 | 4.69*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0172 | 2.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9783 | 130.06*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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