V-Lab
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
12.76%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
13.32%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
14.71%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8457 | 267.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1800 | 34.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0053 | 4.64*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0174 | 2.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9781 | 127.22*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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