Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
15.26%
1 Week
15.44%
1 Month
16.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 2, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0285 | 8.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0722 | 3.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9147 | 74.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.8034 | 3.34*** |
| δpower | 1.1519 | 9.53*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0285 | 8.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 3.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9147 | 74.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8034 | 3.34*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1519 | 9.53*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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