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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

18.32%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

18.44%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Month

18.88%

decreased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 256% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 256% more than positive returnsδ = 0.96 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0256
8.83***
αARCH0.0909
12.08***
βGARCH0.9091
125.50***
γleverage0.5809
10.10***
δpower0.9562
9.07***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0256
8.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0909
12.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9091
125.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5809
10.10***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9562
9.07***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days