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Russell 2000 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

18.43%

increased by 3.43%

1 Week

18.55%

increased by 3.55%

1 Month

18.96%

increased by 3.96%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 253% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 253% more than positive returnsδ = 0.97 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0255
8.78***
αARCH0.0911
12.08***
βGARCH0.9089
125.56***
γleverage0.5736
10.04***
δpower0.9664
9.12***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0255
8.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0911
12.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9089
125.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5736
10.04***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9664
9.12***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days