Russell 2000 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
18.43%
1 Week
18.55%
1 Month
18.96%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 253% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0255 | 8.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0911 | 12.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9089 | 125.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.5736 | 10.04*** |
| δpower | 0.9664 | 9.12*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0255 | 8.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0911 | 12.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9089 | 125.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5736 | 10.04*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9664 | 9.12*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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