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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.51%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

15.73%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

16.49%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 109% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 109% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0303
6.65***
αARCH0.1282
8.95***
βGARCH0.7845
68.48***
γleverage0.1400
5.33***

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0303
6.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1282
8.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7845
68.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1400
5.33***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days