V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.51%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
15.73%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
16.49%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 109% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 109% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0303 | 6.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1282 | 8.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7845 | 68.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.1400 | 5.33*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0303 | 6.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1282 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7845 | 68.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1400 | 5.33*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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