V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.83%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
16.03%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
16.75%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 109% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0303 | 26.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1280 | 35.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7848 | 274.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1400 | 21.32*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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