AEX-Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.97%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
13.25%
increased by 1.27%
1 Month
14.16%
increased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 99% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0332 | 9.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1365 | 8.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7690 | 67.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.1347 | 5.39*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0332 | 9.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1365 | 8.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7690 | 67.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1347 | 5.39*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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