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Dow Jones Industrial Average Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.01%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

13.15%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

13.63%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 181% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0204
9.01***
αARCH0.0998
7.44***
βGARCH0.7908
76.93***
γleverage0.1801
6.82***

0.981

Persistence

35d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0204
9.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0998
7.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7908
76.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1801
6.82***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days