Dow Jones Industrial Average Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.01%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
13.15%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
13.63%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 181% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0204 | 9.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.0998 | 7.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7908 | 76.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.1801 | 6.82*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0204 | 9.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0998 | 7.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7908 | 76.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1801 | 6.82*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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