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Dow Jones Industrial Average EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

12.51%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

12.70%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

13.40%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0022
0.26
αARCH0.1564
9.73***
βGARCH0.9709
191.46***
γleverage-0.1205
-8.34***

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0022
0.26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1564
9.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9709
191.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1205
-8.34***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days