Dow Jones Industrial Average EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.51%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
12.70%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
13.40%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0022 | 0.26 |
| αARCH | 0.1564 | 9.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9709 | 191.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.1205 | -8.34*** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0022 | 0.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1564 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9709 | 191.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1205 | -8.34*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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