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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

11.32%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

11.76%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

12.91%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8444
238.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1882
45.95***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0189
5.47***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0879
4.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8919
40.56***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days