V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
12.54%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
12.80%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
13.46%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8444 | 237.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1883 | 45.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0183 | 5.46*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0854 | 4.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8949 | 41.48*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
Other Dow Jones Industrial Average Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices