Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
11.32%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
11.76%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
12.91%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8444 | 238.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1882 | 45.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0189 | 5.47*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0879 | 4.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8919 | 40.56*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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