V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
14.51%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
14.60%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
14.94%
decreased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8448 | 238.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1880 | 45.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0184 | 5.46*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0854 | 4.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8950 | 41.48*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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