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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

14.51%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

14.60%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

14.94%

decreased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8448
238.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1880
45.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0184
5.46***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0854
4.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8950
41.48***

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days