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Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

10.03%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

10.53%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

11.61%

increased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8440
64.29***
γleverage0.1878
12.06***
λ₁tau intercept0.0189
1.67*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0886
1.90*
λ₃tau persistence0.8909
15.61***

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8440
64.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1878
12.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0189
1.67*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0886
1.90*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8909
15.61***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days