Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
21.55%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
21.08%
decreased by 1.87%
1 Month
19.85%
decreased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0008 | 0.07 |
| βGARCH | 0.8450 | 64.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.1872 | 11.85*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0235 | 1.43 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1074 | 1.57 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8678 | 10.32*** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0008 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8450 | 64.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1872 | 11.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0235 | 1.43 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1074 | 1.57 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8678 | 10.32*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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