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Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

21.55%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

21.08%

decreased by 1.87%

1 Month

19.85%

decreased by 3.10%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0008
0.07
βGARCH0.8450
64.16***
γleverage0.1872
11.85***
λ₁tau intercept0.0235
1.43
λ₂forecast adj.0.1074
1.57
λ₃tau persistence0.8678
10.32***

0.939

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0008
0.07
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8450
64.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1872
11.85***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0235
1.43
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1074
1.57
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8678
10.32***

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days