Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.89%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Week
30.01%
decreased by 2.97%
1 Month
29.08%
decreased by 3.90%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 185% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 5.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6766 | 23.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0803 | 6.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0680 | 0.80 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2380 | 1.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7413 | 2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.760
Half-life:
3 days
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