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V-Lab

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

33.11%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

31.93%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Month

30.61%

decreased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 186% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
5.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6766
23.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0806
6.39***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0672
0.80
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2347
1.04
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7446
2.98***

Persistence:

0.760

Half-life:

3 days