V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
16.04%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
16.30%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
17.25%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0240 | 1.49 |
| αARCH | 0.1491 | 9.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8437 | 66.40*** |
0.993
Persistence97d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0240 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1491 | 9.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8437 | 66.40*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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