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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

16.04%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

16.30%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

17.25%

increased by 0.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0240
1.49
αARCH0.1491
9.14***
βGARCH0.8437
66.40***

0.993

Persistence

97d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0240
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1491
9.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8437
66.40***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days