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V-Lab

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

25.02%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

25.07%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

25.25%

decreased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0188
14.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0688
26.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9254
358.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0950
2.76***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

118 days