Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
25.02%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
25.07%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
25.25%
decreased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0188 | 14.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0688 | 26.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9254 | 358.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0950 | 2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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