V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
15.52%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
16.48%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
19.22%
increased by 2.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.26) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0851 | 7.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.1744 | 11.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7901 | 63.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.2627 | 3.89*** |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0851 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1744 | 11.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7901 | 63.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2627 | 3.89*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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