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V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

15.52%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Week

16.48%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

19.22%

increased by 2.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.26) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0851
7.17***
αARCH0.1744
11.33***
βGARCH0.7901
63.63***
γleverage0.2627
3.89***

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0851
7.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1744
11.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7901
63.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2627
3.89***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days