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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.68%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

18.93%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

19.78%

increased by 0.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.34) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0389
13.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0990
19.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8782
155.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3443
10.99***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days