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Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

21.32%

increased by 2.07%

1 Week

21.43%

increased by 2.18%

1 Month

21.80%

increased by 2.55%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.35) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0397
3.47***
αARCH0.0990
4.92***
βGARCH0.8775
38.90***
γleverage0.3490
2.80***

0.977

Persistence

29d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0397
3.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0990
4.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8775
38.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3490
2.80***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days