Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.68%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
18.93%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
19.78%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.34) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0389 | 13.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0990 | 19.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 155.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3443 | 10.99*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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