V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.37%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
18.63%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
19.50%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 130% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
APARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 130% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0481 | 5.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0942 | 3.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8813 | 43.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.2087 | 3.39*** |
| δpower | 1.9628 | 7.37*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0481 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0942 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8813 | 43.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2087 | 3.39*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9628 | 7.37*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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