Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.91%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
19.14%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
19.90%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 129% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0478 | 23.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0941 | 15.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8809 | 173.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2052 | 13.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9878 | 30.27*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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