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Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

18.37%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

18.63%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

19.50%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 130% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 130% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0481
5.99***
αARCH0.0942
3.90***
βGARCH0.8813
43.64***
γleverage0.2087
3.39***
δpower1.9628
7.37***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0481
5.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0942
3.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8813
43.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2087
3.39***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9628
7.37***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days