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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

20.96%

increased by 3.85%

1 Week

20.82%

increased by 3.71%

1 Month

20.46%

increased by 3.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 157% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0552
12.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8513
148.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0867
16.73***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0024
2.69***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0059
5.58***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9927
596.20***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days