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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

15.07%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

15.56%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

17.01%

increased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 156% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0556
12.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8512
146.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0866
16.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0022
2.66***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0060
5.79***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9927
620.06***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days