V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
20.96%
increased by 3.85%
1 Week
20.82%
increased by 3.71%
1 Month
20.46%
increased by 3.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 157% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 12.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8513 | 148.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0867 | 16.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0024 | 2.69*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0059 | 5.58*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9927 | 596.20*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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