V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.07%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
15.56%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
17.01%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 156% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 12.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8512 | 146.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0866 | 16.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0022 | 2.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0060 | 5.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9927 | 620.06*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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