V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
17.46%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
17.77%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
18.81%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 131% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 131% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0490 | 5.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0591 | 2.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8800 | 40.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.0776 | 2.72*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0490 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0591 | 2.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8800 | 40.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0776 | 2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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