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Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

20.62%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

20.76%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

21.24%

decreased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 131% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 131% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0490
5.68***
αARCH0.0591
2.76***
βGARCH0.8800
40.06***
γleverage0.0776
2.72***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0490
5.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0591
2.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8800
40.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0776
2.72***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days