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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

17.46%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

17.77%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

18.81%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 131% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 131% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0490
5.67***
αARCH0.0591
2.76***
βGARCH0.8800
40.02***
γleverage0.0776
2.72***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0490
5.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0591
2.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8800
40.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0776
2.72***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days