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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

16.07%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

16.47%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

17.76%

increased by 1.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 129% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0481
22.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
10.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8805
159.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0768
10.76***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days