V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.07%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
16.47%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
17.76%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 129% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0481 | 22.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 10.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8805 | 159.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0768 | 10.76*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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