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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

23.89%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

24.03%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

24.56%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 358 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0175
14.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0613
16.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9238
332.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0260
5.31***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

358 days