V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
18.37%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
18.57%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
19.34%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 337 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0174 | 14.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0612 | 16.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9240 | 335.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0255 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
337 days
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