V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange A Share Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.54%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
23.68%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
24.23%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 353 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 14.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0612 | 16.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9239 | 333.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0259 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
353 days
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