Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
22.39%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
22.49%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
22.86%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 325 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~325 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0128 | 2.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0245 | 1.06 |
| βGARCH | 0.9618 | 53.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.0231 | 1.00 |
0.998
Persistence325d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0128 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0245 | 1.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9618 | 53.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0231 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
325 days
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