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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

17.56%

increased by 0.98%

1 Week

17.70%

increased by 1.12%

1 Month

18.22%

increased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 367 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~367 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0117
2.55**
αARCH0.0242
1.04
βGARCH0.9621
53.43***
γleverage0.0237
1.01

0.998

Persistence

367d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0117
2.55**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0242
1.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9621
53.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0237
1.01

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

367 days