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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

18.03%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

18.16%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

18.67%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 371 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0118
10.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0242
4.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9620
212.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0237
4.05***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

371 days