Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
45.23%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
45.19%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
45.07%
decreased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 278 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~278 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0146 | 3.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0275 | 1.06 |
| βGARCH | 0.9605 | 48.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.0190 | 0.76 |
0.998
Persistence278d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0146 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0275 | 1.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9605 | 48.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0190 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
278 days
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