V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
17.56%
increased by 0.98%
1 Week
17.70%
increased by 1.12%
1 Month
18.22%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 367 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~367 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0117 | 2.55** |
| αARCH | 0.0242 | 1.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.9621 | 53.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.0237 | 1.01 |
0.998
Persistence367d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0117 | 2.55** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0242 | 1.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9621 | 53.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0237 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
367 days
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