S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.80%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
14.95%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
15.50%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0263 | 6.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0207 | 2.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8916 | 120.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.1368 | 6.92*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0263 | 6.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0207 | 2.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8916 | 120.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1368 | 6.92*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
Other S&P MidCap 400 Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices