V-Lab
S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.59%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
11.93%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
13.06%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0265 | 23.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0205 | 11.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8911 | 480.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1383 | 27.81*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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