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S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.80%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

14.95%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

15.50%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0263
6.00***
αARCH0.0207
2.80***
βGARCH0.8916
120.67***
γleverage0.1368
6.92***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0263
6.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0207
2.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8916
120.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1368
6.92***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days