S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.05%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
13.30%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
14.16%
increased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0265 | 23.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0207 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8909 | 479.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1382 | 27.71*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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