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S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

13.88%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

14.09%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

14.79%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0264
5.98***
αARCH0.0204
2.77***
βGARCH0.8915
120.52***
γleverage0.1375
6.93***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0264
5.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0204
2.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8915
120.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1375
6.93***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days