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V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.59%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

11.93%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

13.06%

increased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0265
23.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0205
11.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8911
480.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1383
27.81***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days