V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.46%
increased by 2.02%
1 Week
16.72%
increased by 2.28%
1 Month
17.57%
increased by 3.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 397% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 397% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0436 | 5.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0318 | 2.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8809 | 105.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.1259 | 5.22*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0436 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0318 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8809 | 105.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1259 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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