IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.78%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
17.02%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
17.82%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0439 | 22.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 10.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8809 | 420.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1262 | 20.87*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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