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IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

17.16%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

17.37%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

18.08%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 399% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0434
5.70***
αARCH0.0314
2.74***
βGARCH0.8816
105.86***
γleverage0.1254
5.22***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0434
5.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0314
2.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8816
105.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1254
5.22***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days