V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
15.73%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
16.03%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
17.04%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0438 | 22.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0315 | 10.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8812 | 421.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1258 | 20.86*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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