IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.34%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
16.61%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
17.49%
increased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 398% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0437 | 22.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 10.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8811 | 421.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1258 | 20.84*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices