IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
17.16%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
17.37%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
18.08%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 399% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0434 | 5.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0314 | 2.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8816 | 105.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.1254 | 5.22*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0434 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0314 | 2.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8816 | 105.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1254 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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