V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
18.23%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
18.39%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
18.90%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 397% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 397% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0435 | 5.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0316 | 2.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8812 | 105.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.1256 | 5.21*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0435 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8812 | 105.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1256 | 5.21*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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