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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.00%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

17.25%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

18.18%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 381 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 44% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0188
14.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0650
16.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9189
311.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0284
5.47***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

381 days