V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.00%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
17.25%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
18.18%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 381 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 44% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0188 | 14.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 16.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 311.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0284 | 5.47*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
381 days
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