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Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.52%

increased by 0.90%

1 Week

14.82%

increased by 1.20%

1 Month

15.93%

increased by 2.31%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC

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graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 376 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~376 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0187
3.59***
αARCH0.0652
4.24***
βGARCH0.9189
77.93***
γleverage0.0281
1.35

0.998

Persistence

376d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0187
3.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0652
4.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9189
77.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0281
1.35

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

376 days