V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.52%
increased by 0.90%
1 Week
14.82%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
15.93%
increased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 376 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~376 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0187 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0652 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9189 | 77.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0281 | 1.35 |
0.998
Persistence376d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0187 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 77.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0281 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
376 days
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