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Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.36%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

15.64%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

16.68%

increased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 373 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~373 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0187
3.59***
αARCH0.0652
4.24***
βGARCH0.9190
78.09***
γleverage0.0280
1.35

0.998

Persistence

373d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0187
3.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0652
4.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9190
78.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0280
1.35

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

373 days