Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.36%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
15.64%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
16.68%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 373 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~373 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0187 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0652 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9190 | 78.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0280 | 1.35 |
0.998
Persistence373d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0187 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9190 | 78.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0280 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
373 days
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