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V-Lab

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

30.50%

increased by 0.85%

1 Week

30.48%

increased by 0.83%

1 Month

30.41%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0189
13.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0642
15.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9265
347.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0072
1.06

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

121 days