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V-Lab

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

24.96%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

25.00%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Month

25.17%

decreased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0188
13.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0640
15.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9268
346.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0068
1.02

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

119 days