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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.25%

increased by 1.38%

1 Week

16.44%

increased by 1.57%

1 Month

17.17%

increased by 2.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC

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graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~112 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0192
3.48***
αARCH0.0648
3.99***
βGARCH0.9259
86.78***
γleverage0.0063
0.23

0.994

Persistence

112d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0192
3.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0648
3.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9259
86.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0063
0.23

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days