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V-Lab

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

18.74%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

18.88%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Month

19.41%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~115 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0190
3.48***
αARCH0.0641
3.96***
βGARCH0.9267
86.80***
γleverage0.0065
0.24

0.994

Persistence

115d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0190
3.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0641
3.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9267
86.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0065
0.24

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

115 days