V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
18.74%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
18.88%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
19.41%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~115 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0190 | 3.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0641 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9267 | 86.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.0065 | 0.24 |
0.994
Persistence115d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0190 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0641 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9267 | 86.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0065 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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