V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.07%
increased by 2.39%
1 Week
32.04%
increased by 2.36%
1 Month
31.91%
increased by 2.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0189 | 13.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0643 | 15.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9264 | 346.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0073 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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