Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.67%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
16.86%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
17.55%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:30 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0192 | 3.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0647 | 3.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9261 | 87.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.0060 | 0.22 |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0647 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9261 | 87.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0060 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
Other Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices