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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.67%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

16.86%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

17.55%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0192
3.48***
αARCH0.0647
3.99***
βGARCH0.9261
87.01***
γleverage0.0060
0.22

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0192
3.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0647
3.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9261
87.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0060
0.22

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days