V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.25%
increased by 1.38%
1 Week
16.44%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
17.17%
increased by 2.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~112 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0192 | 3.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0648 | 3.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9259 | 86.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.0063 | 0.23 |
0.994
Persistence112d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0648 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9259 | 86.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0063 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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