Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.96%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
25.00%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
25.17%
decreased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0188 | 13.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0640 | 15.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9268 | 346.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0068 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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