V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.50%
increased by 0.85%
1 Week
30.48%
increased by 0.83%
1 Month
30.41%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0189 | 13.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0642 | 15.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 347.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0072 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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