Russell 2000 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
26.90%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
26.83%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
26.58%
decreased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 278% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 278% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0180 | 5.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0383 | 4.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8998 | 138.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.1062 | 5.70*** |
0.991
Persistence79d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0180 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0383 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8998 | 138.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1062 | 5.70*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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