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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026

1 Day

26.90%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

26.83%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

26.58%

decreased by 1.62%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/13/2024

to

11/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 278% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 278% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0180
5.89***
αARCH0.0383
4.75***
βGARCH0.8998
138.44***
γleverage0.1062
5.70***

0.991

Persistence

79d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0180
5.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0383
4.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8998
138.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1062
5.70***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days