V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.87%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
15.04%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
15.68%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 282% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0182 | 23.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0381 | 18.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8993 | 550.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1074 | 22.89*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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