V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
13.72%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
13.92%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
14.67%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 278% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 278% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0180 | 5.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.0382 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8997 | 137.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.1063 | 5.68*** |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0180 | 5.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0382 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 137.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1063 | 5.68*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
Other Russell 2000 Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices