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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.37%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

14.55%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

15.24%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 2000 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 280% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0181
23.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0382
18.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8994
549.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1071
22.69***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days