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Russell 2000 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

15.74%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

16.60%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

19.06%

increased by 3.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7723
6.42***
αARCH0.1074
10.66***
βGARCH0.8564
72.96***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0353
3.85***
γ2-0.0474
-3.37***
γ30.0033
0.32
γ40.0217
2.55**
γ5-0.0194
-3.34***

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7723
6.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1074
10.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8564
72.96***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0353
3.85***
γ2-0.0474
-3.37***
γ30.0033
0.32
γ40.0217
2.55**
γ5-0.0194
-3.34***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days