V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.11%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
17.87%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
20.08%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7668 | 6.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 10.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8557 | 72.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0349 | 3.78*** |
| γ2 | -0.0465 | -3.29*** |
| γ3 | 0.0022 | 0.21 |
| γ4 | 0.0232 | 2.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.0207 | -3.52*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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