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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.36%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

18.10%

increased by 0.52%

1 Month

20.26%

increased by 2.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7669
6.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1079
10.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8554
72.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0350
3.77***
γ2-0.0466
-3.27***
γ30.0020
0.19
γ40.0236
2.74***
γ5-0.0210
-3.54***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days