V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.14%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
17.88%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
20.02%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7697 | 6.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1076 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8559 | 72.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0350 | 3.80*** |
| γ2 | -0.0467 | -3.31*** |
| γ3 | 0.0025 | 0.24 |
| γ4 | 0.0227 | 2.66*** |
| γ5 | -0.0202 | -3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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