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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

18.46%

increased by 2.44%

1 Week

18.66%

increased by 2.64%

1 Month

19.19%

increased by 3.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4468
8.68***
αARCH0.1772
7.70***
βGARCH0.7574
31.04***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0219
4.95***
γ2-0.0274
-4.86***

0.935

Persistence

10d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4468
8.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1772
7.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7574
31.04***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0219
4.95***
γ2-0.0274
-4.86***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days