MSCI COLCAP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
17.64%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
17.90%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
18.57%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4488 | 8.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1737 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7619 | 30.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0222 | 4.73*** |
| γ2 | -0.0277 | -4.62*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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