V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
21.24%
increased by 2.00%
1 Week
21.09%
increased by 1.85%
1 Month
20.70%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4467 | 8.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1773 | 7.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7573 | 31.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0219 | 4.91*** |
| γ2 | -0.0274 | -4.82*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
Other MSCI COLCAP Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices