V-Lab
MSCI COLCAP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.24%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Week
17.60%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
18.52%
decreased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4499 | 8.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1785 | 7.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7562 | 30.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0220 | 4.87*** |
| γ2 | -0.0274 | -4.78*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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