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MSCI COLCAP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.31%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

15.13%

increased by 0.91%

1 Month

17.12%

increased by 2.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4445
8.70***
αARCH0.1767
7.69***
βGARCH0.7578
31.07***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0218
4.96***
γ2-0.0273
-4.87***

0.935

Persistence

10d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4445
8.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1767
7.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7578
31.07***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0218
4.96***
γ2-0.0273
-4.87***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days