MSCI COLCAP Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
20.81%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Week
20.74%
decreased by 2.26%
1 Month
20.53%
decreased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4445 | 8.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.1762 | 7.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7582 | 31.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0220 | 5.03*** |
| γ2 | -0.0275 | -4.95*** |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4445 | 8.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1762 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7582 | 31.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0220 | 5.03*** |
| γ2 | -0.0275 | -4.95*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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