MSCI COLCAP Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
20.17%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Week
19.91%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Month
19.19%
decreased by 2.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 64% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 64% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0117 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.2897 | 10.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9469 | 111.22*** |
| γleverage | -0.0705 | -2.94*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0117 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2897 | 10.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9469 | 111.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0705 | -2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
Other MSCI COLCAP Index Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices