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V-Lab

MSCI COLCAP Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.92%

increased by 2.16%

1 Week

17.05%

increased by 2.29%

1 Month

17.49%

increased by 2.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 48% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 48% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0397
6.51***
αARCH0.1762
7.56***
βGARCH0.7543
43.32***
γleverage0.0854
1.99**

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0397
6.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1762
7.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7543
43.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0854
1.99**

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days