MSCI COLCAP Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.78%
increased by 1.00%
1 Week
15.98%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
16.64%
increased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 49% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 49% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0397 | 6.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1756 | 7.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7545 | 43.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0860 | 2.01** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0397 | 6.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1756 | 7.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7545 | 43.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0860 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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