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MSCI COLCAP Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.78%

increased by 1.00%

1 Week

15.98%

increased by 1.20%

1 Month

16.64%

increased by 1.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI COLCAP Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2008 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 49% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 49% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0397
6.52***
αARCH0.1756
7.57***
βGARCH0.7545
43.44***
γleverage0.0860
2.01**

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0397
6.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1756
7.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7545
43.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0860
2.01**

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days