Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
25.75%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Week
25.39%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Month
24.20%
decreased by 3.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0520 | 1.66* |
| αARCH | 0.0797 | 1.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.8361 | 20.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.1001 | 1.24 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0520 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0797 | 1.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8361 | 20.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1001 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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