Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
45.34%
decreased by 3.25%
1 Week
44.10%
decreased by 4.49%
1 Month
39.90%
decreased by 8.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 07:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 1993 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0524 | 1.66* |
| αARCH | 0.0799 | 1.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.8347 | 20.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.1025 | 1.26 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0524 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 1.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8347 | 20.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1025 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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