Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
45.72%
increased by 12.11%
1 Week
44.48%
increased by 10.87%
1 Month
40.25%
increased by 6.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 126% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0514 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 5.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8375 | 81.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0995 | 4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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