V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
17.01%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
17.03%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
17.11%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6325 | 9.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0849 | 9.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8985 | 93.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 6.22*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6325 | 9.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0849 | 9.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8985 | 93.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 6.22*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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