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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

21.86%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

21.74%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

21.30%

decreased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 27, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6312
9.60***
αARCH0.0843
9.21***
βGARCH0.8993
94.75***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0010
6.16***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6312
9.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0843
9.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8993
94.75***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0010
6.16***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days