Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.71%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Week
26.46%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Month
25.54%
decreased by 2.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 07:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6319 | 9.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0845 | 9.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8987 | 92.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 6.27*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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