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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

26.71%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Week

26.46%

decreased by 1.48%

1 Month

25.54%

decreased by 2.40%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 07:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6319
9.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0845
9.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8987
92.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0010
6.27***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days