V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.57%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
20.49%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
20.17%
decreased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6337 | 9.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0846 | 9.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8989 | 93.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 6.19*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6337 | 9.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0846 | 9.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8989 | 93.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 6.19*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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