V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
18.00%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
18.27%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
19.14%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9369 | 8.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0905 | 10.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8773 | 80.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0146 | 0.57 |
| γ2 | 0.0254 | 0.61 |
| γ3 | -0.1439 | -4.54*** |
| γ4 | 0.1893 | 6.69*** |
| γ5 | -0.1371 | -5.34*** |
| γ6 | 0.0991 | 3.51*** |
| γ7 | -0.0662 | -2.35** |
| γ8 | 0.0177 | 0.84 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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