V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
27.54%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
27.24%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Month
26.23%
decreased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9339 | 8.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 10.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8776 | 80.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0134 | 0.52 |
| γ2 | 0.0278 | 0.67 |
| γ3 | -0.1462 | -4.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.1910 | 6.76*** |
| γ5 | -0.1378 | -5.36*** |
| γ6 | 0.0990 | 3.50*** |
| γ7 | -0.0649 | -2.30** |
| γ8 | 0.0161 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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