V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.94%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
21.96%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
22.01%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9353 | 8.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 10.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8776 | 80.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0139 | 0.54 |
| γ2 | 0.0268 | 0.64 |
| γ3 | -0.1451 | -4.56*** |
| γ4 | 0.1901 | 6.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.1373 | -5.33*** |
| γ6 | 0.0987 | 3.49*** |
| γ7 | -0.0650 | -2.30** |
| γ8 | 0.0163 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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