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V-Lab

NASDAQ 100 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.90%

increased by 0.30%

1 Week

22.84%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

22.67%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ 100 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9331
8.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0905
10.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8772
80.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0126
0.49
γ20.0297
0.71
γ3-0.1484
-4.66***
γ40.1926
6.86***
γ5-0.1389
-5.43***
γ60.0998
3.54***
γ7-0.0651
-2.30**
γ80.0159
0.76

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days