NASDAQ 100 MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.68%
increased by 2.41%
1 Week
19.93%
increased by 2.66%
1 Month
20.82%
increased by 3.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0478 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.2298 | 13.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7524 | 66.59*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0478 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2298 | 13.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7524 | 66.59*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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