V-Lab
NASDAQ 100 Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
15.42%
1 Week
14.90%
1 Month
13.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0477 | 9.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.2188 | 19.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7625 | 62.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.1981 | 9.05*** |
| δpower | 0.8258 | 6.00*** |
0.936
Persistence10d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0477 | 9.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2188 | 19.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7625 | 62.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1981 | 9.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8258 | 6.00*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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