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Russell 1000 Growth Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

14.58%

increased by 1.71%

1 Week

14.22%

increased by 1.35%

1 Month

13.20%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Growth Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 87% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 87% more than positive returnsδ = 1.08 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0375
8.57***
αARCH0.1950
12.77***
βGARCH0.7876
53.43***
γleverage0.2816
5.71***
δpower1.0768
6.53***

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0375
8.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1950
12.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7876
53.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2816
5.71***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0768
6.53***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days