Russell 1000 Growth Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.21%
1 Week
20.23%
1 Month
20.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0263 | 6.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.0737 | 3.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9122 | 81.57*** |
| γleverage | 0.8697 | 2.23** |
| δpower | 1.2625 | 10.45*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0263 | 6.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0737 | 3.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9122 | 81.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8697 | 2.23** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2625 | 10.45*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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