V-Lab
Russell 1000 Growth Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.58%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
24.45%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
23.98%
decreased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0264 | 27.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 14.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9119 | 326.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8598 | 9.34*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2468 | 40.73*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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