V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.01%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
11.19%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
11.85%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 331% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0158 | 32.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0815 | 36.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9167 | 487.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5427 | 29.11*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2019 | 36.28*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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