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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

11.01%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

11.19%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

11.85%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 331% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0158
32.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0815
36.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9167
487.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5427
29.11***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2019
36.28***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days