V-Lab
MSCI World APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
12.11%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
12.22%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
12.63%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0182 | 34.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0844 | 41.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9104 | 494.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6270 | 27.85*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1410 | 42.65*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
Other MSCI World Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices