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V-Lab

MSCI World APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

12.11%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

12.22%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

12.63%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of MSCI World APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0182
34.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0844
41.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9104
494.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6270
27.85***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1410
42.65***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days