MSCI World Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.25%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
11.56%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
12.48%
increased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2547 | 6.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1154 | 9.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8452 | 59.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0110 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | 0.0551 | 1.35 |
| γ3 | -0.1604 | -5.54*** |
| γ4 | 0.1885 | 7.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.1769 | -7.17*** |
| γ6 | 0.1144 | 4.19*** |
| γ7 | -0.0030 | -0.10 |
| γ8 | -0.0842 | -1.58 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
Other MSCI World Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices