V-Lab
Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 4th, 2026
1 Day
12.34%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
13.33%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
16.44%
increased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2805 | 5.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.1909 | 11.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7938 | 50.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0868 | 2.13** |
| γ2 | -0.1677 | -2.65*** |
| γ3 | 0.2588 | 4.74*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2805 | 5.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1909 | 11.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7938 | 50.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0868 | 2.13** |
| γ2 | -0.1677 | -2.65*** |
| γ3 | 0.2588 | 4.74*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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