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V-Lab

Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 4th, 2026

1 Day

12.34%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

13.33%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

16.44%

increased by 3.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2805
5.85***
αARCH0.1909
11.14***
βGARCH0.7938
50.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0868
2.13**
γ2-0.1677
-2.65***
γ30.2588
4.74***

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2805
5.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1909
11.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7938
50.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0868
2.13**
γ2-0.1677
-2.65***
γ30.2588
4.74***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days