Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.07%
increased by 0.62%
1 Week
12.98%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
15.87%
increased by 4.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3190 | 5.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1928 | 11.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7921 | 49.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0911 | 2.14** |
| γ2 | -0.1754 | -2.67*** |
| γ3 | 0.2644 | 4.71*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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