V-Lab
S&P 500 Growth Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
24.83%
increased by 4.86%
1 Week
24.69%
increased by 4.72%
1 Month
24.24%
increased by 4.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7922 | 4.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 10.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8651 | 72.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0990 | 3.42*** |
| γ2 | -0.2093 | -5.08*** |
| γ3 | 0.1926 | 7.50*** |
| γ4 | -0.1379 | -5.45*** |
| γ5 | 0.0908 | 3.02*** |
| γ6 | -0.0337 | -1.07 |
| γ7 | -0.0086 | -0.20 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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