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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 18th, 2026

1 Day

9.35%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

10.21%

increased by 0.51%

1 Month

12.87%

increased by 3.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7976
3.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1711
11.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8141
60.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0127
-2.65***
γ20.0191
2.25**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days