Tadawul All Share TASI Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 18th, 2026
1 Day
9.35%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
10.21%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
12.87%
increased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7976 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1711 | 11.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8141 | 60.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0127 | -2.65*** |
| γ2 | 0.0191 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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