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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 31st, 2026

1 Day

23.45%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Week

23.54%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Month

23.87%

decreased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 29, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8031
3.46***
αARCH0.1711
11.33***
βGARCH0.8141
61.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0124
-2.69***
γ20.0190
2.33**

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8031
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1711
11.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8141
61.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0124
-2.69***
γ20.0190
2.33**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days