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V-Lab
V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

11.81%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

12.44%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

14.54%

increased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0358
5.45***
αARCH0.1671
11.01***
βGARCH0.8230
65.10***

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0358
5.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1671
11.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8230
65.10***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days