V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.81%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
12.44%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
14.54%
increased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0358 | 5.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.1671 | 11.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8230 | 65.10*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0358 | 5.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1671 | 11.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8230 | 65.10*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
Other Tadawul All Share TASI Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices