Tadawul All Share TASI Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 18th, 2026
1 Day
10.47%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
11.15%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
13.65%
increased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 15, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0291 | 18.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3108 | 55.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9583 | 595.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0860 | -19.06*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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