V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.64%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
14.29%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
16.40%
increased by 3.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 116% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.33 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0487 | 27.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1765 | 44.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8235 | 223.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2811 | 20.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3331 | 36.56*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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