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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 8th, 2026

1 Day

13.64%

increased by 0.88%

1 Week

14.29%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

16.40%

increased by 3.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 116% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.33 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0487
27.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1765
44.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8235
223.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2811
20.61***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3331
36.56***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days