V-Lab
FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.38%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
31.18%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Month
30.46%
decreased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Jun 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 222% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.24 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0248 | 20.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 27.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9241 | 398.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4401 | 19.40*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2385 | 27.50*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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