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V-Lab

FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

31.38%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Week

31.18%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Month

30.46%

decreased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2003 to Jun 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 222% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.24 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0248
20.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0728
27.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9241
398.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4401
19.40***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2385
27.50***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days