FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
27.03%
increased by 1.10%
1 Week
26.62%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
25.97%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8036 | 36.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.1541 | 7.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0094 | 2.19** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0410 | 3.94*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9532 | 79.96*** |
0.881
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8036 | 36.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1541 | 7.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 2.19** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0410 | 3.94*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9532 | 79.96*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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