V-Lab
FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.31%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
33.68%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
35.88%
increased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Jun 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8028 | 100.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1532 | 28.87*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0087 | 1.75* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0410 | 2.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9538 | 56.81*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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