V-Lab
S&P 500 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
11.09%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
11.51%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
12.52%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8393 | 62.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1975 | 12.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0107 | 1.66* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0627 | 2.02** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9266 | 25.47*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
Other S&P 500 Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices