S&P 500 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.75%
increased by 1.63%
1 Week
13.96%
increased by 1.84%
1 Month
14.59%
increased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8393 | 222.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1972 | 44.67*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0108 | 5.67*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0633 | 4.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9260 | 57.51*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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