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V-Lab

S&P 500 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

13.75%

increased by 1.63%

1 Week

13.96%

increased by 1.84%

1 Month

14.59%

increased by 2.47%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8393
222.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1972
44.67***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0108
5.67***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0633
4.43***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9260
57.51***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days